A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
